I was reviewing the Housing Market and Outlook report that CMHC has recently released for their 3rd quarter update and I wanted to share this with you. Following is a point form overview of what was in the articles:

Canadian Market & Outlook

The first review is the one for all of Canada and you can listen to the full report at: 2010 Housing Market Conditions and Outlook – Recorded Webinar

• Canada has experienced growth in the last 4 Quarters which includes consumer spending, income growth, government spending and imports
• The labour market is strong and has recovered approximately 95% of the 420,000 jobs that were lost between October 2008 – July 2009. Our neighbours to the south, the US, have not been so lucky. Although they are beginning to recover, job growth is still at a minimal as they lost 8.4 million jobs and have only recovered about 12% of those
• Economic forecast for 2010 & 2011:

• Interest Rates remains historically low however they do anticipate an increase to approximately 6.5%
• There has been improved affordability, with strong income growth and low interest rates. A mortgage sits at approximately 32.7% of a person’s disposable income from the 39% it was at the end of 2007
• Mortgages & arrears are tied closely to the unemployment and they anticipate the foreclosures to drop to about 0.42% from 0.45% at the start of 2010
• Across Canada, the real estate market is reflecting that of a balanced market place. They anticipate mls sales to decrease which will support a stabilization for the remainder of 2010. 2011 will see a modest increase but not recovering to the start of 2010. Modest growth is sales prices are also expected and they predict that they will recover primarily at the end of 2011, which will be comparable to the sale prices in the 1st quarter of 2010. A 1% growth in price is anticipated for 2011.
• Housing starts are decreasing with a total starts of 185000 for 2010 and will continue to do so til the end of the year. They for see a total of 176900 for 2011.

Alberta Market & Outlook

The information on Alberta can be viewed here on page 9: CMHC Report

• Economy is expected to increase by 2.9% in 2010, with an anticipated 3.4% increase in 2011.
• The labour market will improve modestly with stronger growth in 2011
• Total net migration is expected to decrease by 9% for 2010 but will increase in 2011 due to the growing economy and employment opportunities
• Single housing starts are expected to rise modestly and mutli-family starts will rise, however they will remain low due to production that occurred in past years.
• Resale’s are expected to decrease by 11% in 2010 however sales are anticipated to grow in 2011 due to an improving labour market, wage growth and migration.
• With the decreased sales to new listings ratio in Alberta, indicating that we are in a buyer’s market. The average home price is expected to be $353,400 in 2010 and increase to $362,700 in 2011, an increase of approximately 1.03%

All in all, Canada seems to be slowly recovering from the economic troubles that we have faced, with Alberta crawling ahead in the upcoming year. Although their predictions are fairly conservative with an estimated growth of 1% in the real estate market, it is good to know that we are at least moving forward and not backwards. If you have any questions about the real estate market in Edmonton, Sherwood Park or the surrounding areas, please feel free to contact me and I would be happy to help!